One of the most significant discussion topics among people who bet is why do betting odds change? As money gambled on a certain outcome enters the market, so does the liability for the layer on that outcome. To balance the book, the bookmaker will seek to change the odds to slow the amount of bets on that possibility and maybe extend the odds on other outcomes to attract money.
The movement of odds is a crucial component of making a betting book on any event; it also generates situations and words like ‘steamers’ and ‘drifters.’
Let’s take a closer look at the subject of the betting odds change or betting odds movement, to see how it works with some real-world instances.
What Impacts Betting Odds?
Prices in betting markets change for two major reasons. The first is knowledge, and the second is money. Don’t you know that both make the world go round? The World revolves on money and knowledge.
They can also influence betting odds markets by shortening or lengthening prices based on the sort of news or the amount of money spent on certain outcomes.
Why Do Knowledge and News Influence Market Prices?
Consider the following scenario: a football club relies largely on their star player to score the great majority of its goals.
Take Liverpool and Mo Salah one at a time. The odds for the next weekend’s games against Chelsea are published in advance, sometimes even more than a week in advance, but Salah is spotted limping out in training on a Thursday before the game, and rumours are flooding in that he won’t be able to play against Chelsea at the weekend.
How to Understand Bookmakers
This is crucial information, and because Liverpool relies largely on its star player to score goals, they will be losing a key player.
Prior to these news, the estimated probability of a Liverpool victory against Chelsea would have led to the formation of the initial reported odds pricing.
With Liverpool’s prospects reduced due to Salah’s injury, the market would try to adjust before the news spreads and smart punters take advantage of opposing the price by betting on a draw or a Liverpool defeat.
News about Missing Players, Injuries or Suspensions Can Influence Betting Odds Movements
Betting odds can be influenced by factors other than money. Changes in a variety of variables, such as important player fitness, weather, injuries, player suspensions, players bans, and so on, will have an impact on price swings in various betting markets.
Money’s Influence on Betting Prices
Using the same example, if the bookmakers were unaware of the injury of Salah but a large number of high-stakes punters were, and they began betting heavily against Liverpool at odds that were now higher than they should have been, the bookmakers would have to react quickly to the growing liabilities on the bets being placed.
They do this by changing the odds on the outcome being bet on (possibly decreasing the value for the punter) and lengthening the opposing outcomes in order to draw more money to the market and assure a profit regardless of the outcome.
Odds Movements are effective both up and down
As a ‘bet’ develops and one price shortens, another price will lengthen to preserve the market margin and invite additional money into the market for the less favored outcomes.
If we applied this similar betting situation to horse racing pricing changes, namely substantial shortening or lengthening of chances on a single runner, we could call them ‘Steamers’ and ‘Drifters.’
How to Profit from Betting Odds Movement
The greatest strategy to benefit from betting odds movement is to “bet against” the masses. However, you must recognize the opportunity and be bold at the same time.
Another way to profit from big market changes is to get in ‘early; at the beginning of the movement, rather than being one of the crowds following the move and joining at a time where the real value of the bet has been taken up!