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Poisson betting strategy

The Poisson distribution betting strategy has helped both sports bettors and bookmakers increase their chance of having a profit. What makes this mathematical model so vital to the sports betting industry though? The answer is simple. Both parties can use it to their advantage.

What is the Poisson distribution?

The Poisson distribution strategy is the act of combining a math equation with easily obtainable statistics to find out how possible an outcome it. So basically we are talking about a probability theory.

Bookmakers have been using this model for decades to assign each possible outcome suitable odds. However, if you check out the odds you aren’t presented with that selection’s probability of coming true. This is where we come in.

What do you need to use the Poisson distribution strategy?

Mainly, bettors use the Poisson distribution strategy to calculate the number of goals to be scored during a game so that they can make the best possible bet.

Normally, this would be done by using Poisson’s distribution formula but you can use an online calculator instead.

To accurately calculate each outcome we first need to gather some data. These would be the league’s average goal expectancy as well as the attack and defense strength of each team.

To find out the league’s average goal expectancy you’d have to check how many home and away goals are or have been scored so far in the current league’s season and then divide that by the total number of games. As result, you will now have the two league averages we need to continue.

To calculate a team’s attack strength you must first find that team’s average of home goals and then divide that by the league’s average.

To calculate a team’s defense strength you have to do the same thing but with goals allowed. So, divide the team’s average of allowed goals with the league’s average.

How to use the Poisson distribution strategy?

Now that we’ve gathered all the necessary data we can move to the next step which is none other than actually using the mathematical formula.

First, we need to calculate each team’s goal expectancy. For the home team, this is done by multiplying the home team’s attack strength by the away team’s defense strength and the league’s average of home goals.

Similarly, to find the goal expectancy of the away team we can multiply the away team’s attack strength by the home team’s defense strength and the league’s average of away goals.

Now let’s put the Poisson distribution formula to work so that we can calculate how likely each possible score is. As previously mentioned, you should do that using an online calculator.

You just need to fill in the number of goals, the team’s expected average of scored goals per match. Do this with a number of 0-5 goals (or more) to come up with a list of probabilities for these numbers. Repeat this process for the other team as well.

How to calculate the probability of match outcomes?

We’ve reached the final step which is where we will use the data we’ve gathered so far to calculate the probability of each possible match outcome.

This can be done by multiplying the possible score probability of each team by that of the other team.

For example, if the home team’s probability of scoring 2 goals is 0.25 and the away team’s probability of scoring 1 goal is 0.35 the probability of a 2-1 final score would be:

0.25 x 0.35 = 0.0875

This translates to an 8.75% chance of this being the game’s final score.

How to calculate the winning chance of each team?

To find out the probability of each team winning you should add all the probabilities of the winning scores, for example, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-1, etc.

To find out the probability of the game ending on a draw do the same while using scores including 0-0, 1-1, 2-2, etc.

Bookmakers calculate the odds they assign to each selection by dividing the probability of each possible outcome (home win, draw, away win) by 1. As expected they might alter these so that they can be more profitable for them than the bettors.

Conclusion on the Poisson distribution 

As you might have already figured out yourself, the Poisson distribution strategy is more likely to be profitable as the season goes on because there would be much more available data to calculate a more accurate probability for each possible outcome of a game.

Still, if you are looking for a statistical kind of decision-making bet strategy then the Poisson distribution might be the best betting strategy you could use!


Read the best betting strategy articles online. Learn how to bet on sports, or refresh your betting knowledge with strategies and insights professional bettors use to get an edge in every bet they make.

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